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dc.contributor.authorKoyuncu, Kaan
dc.contributor.authorTavacıoğlu, Leyla
dc.contributor.authorGökmen, Neslihan
dc.contributor.authorArıcan, Umut Çelen
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-12T07:37:12Z
dc.date.available2021-02-12T07:37:12Z
dc.date.issued2021en_US
dc.identifier.citationKoyuncu, K., L. Tavacioğlu, N. Gökmen, and U. Ç. Arican. 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 Impact on RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index by using SARIMA Models." Maritime Policy and Management. doi:10.1080/03088839.2021.1876937.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0308-8839
dc.identifier.issn1464-5254
dc.identifier.otherWOS:000611599500001
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2021.1876937
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/8951
dc.description.abstractMaritime operators are facing their biggest challenge called Coronavirus (COVID-19) since the 2008 financial crisis. As part of the measures taken by the countries against the virus, the domino effect started with the breaks in the interconnected supply chain, like the spider web. The main purpose of this study is modeling the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) and the Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) Container Throughput Index with the time series, to reveal the relationship between the short-term forecast results and the COVID-19 seen in the first months of 2020. The deep effect of COVID-19 on maritime trade is investigated by forecasting the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index in 89 major international container ports, including and excluding seasonal variations. The modeling process of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing State Space Model (ETS) is explained. To evaluate SARIMA and ETS models’ performance, information criteria, and error measurements are calculated and compared. SARIMA model is found as more suitable model than ETS forecasting seasonally and working-day adjusted and original RWI/ISL. The results indicated that the SARIMA model is suitable and efficient for the forecasting of RWI/ISL. Three months’ forecasting results are showed that the decrease will continue.en_US
dc.item-language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTDen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1080/03088839.2021.1876937en_US
dc.item-rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectMaritime tradeen_US
dc.subjectcontainersen_US
dc.subjectSARIMAen_US
dc.subjectRWI/ISLen_US
dc.titleForecasting COVID-19 impact on RWI/ISL container throughput index by using SARIMA modelsen_US
dc.item-typearticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMÜ, Datça Kazım Yılmaz Meslek Yüksekokulu, Ulaştırma Hizmetleri Bölümüen_US
dc.contributor.institutionauthorKoyuncu, Kaan
dc.relation.journalMARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENTen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US


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