Use of ordered logit model with time series data for determining the factors affecting the milk yield of Holstein Friesians

Abstract

This article aims to introduce the use of ordered logit model with time series data in milk productivity studies and determine the important factor levels affecting the milk yield of Holstein Friesians. The data consists of 2002 records collected for the years 2009 2015 from the reports of the Cattle Breeders' Association of Turkey (CBAT) in Mugla province in Turkey. The direct and marginal effects of the variables: parity, lactation length and year of calving on milk yield are investigated and the probabilities regarding the milk yield production for a given specific parity, lactation length and calving year are calculated. The results show that milk yield slightly increases on the 4th parity of cows. As far as the years concerned, although there had mostly been a steady amount of milk production between 2009 and 2015 years, there was a significant decrease in 2011 and increase in 2014.