An Analytical Network Process (ANP) evaluation of alternative fuels for electricity generation in Turkey

Abstract

In this paper, we present an Analytical Network Process (ANP) model to determine the best fuel mix for electricity generation in Turkey from a sustainable development perspective. The proposed model is implemented in two alternative scenarios. These scenarios are structured along the lines of classification between weak and strong sustainability, and therefore reflect two basic dimensions of sustainability of energy production-environmental protection and sustainable supply of energy resources. The results of the study indicate the gap between goals of sustainable development and energy policies of Turkey in terms of energy security and environmental degradation. Under all alternative scenarios of our model, the highest value alternative is hydropower - domestic, renewable source - while the Turkish electricity sector mainly relies on imported natural gas. The share of nuclear energy is in the range of 8.12-10.21% in our model results, although nuclear energy is not available yet. The calculated percentages of renewable fuels (biomass, geothermal, wind, solar) are 35.7% and 28.9% for Scenario I and Scenario 2, respectively, while the total percentage of these fuels is 0.18% of the installed capacity of Turkey. The results of our model suggest that the share of renewable fuels in installed capacity should be increased to achieve sustainable development. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.