Prediction of the effect of insulation thickness and emission on heating energy requirements of cities in the future

Abstract

This study predicts the effect of insulation thickness on residential- and population-sourced energy demands and emission amounts in the future with a new method. Attempts are made to determine the future population increase amounts with the graphic method for 2018-2040. The current population of 5,600,386 in Ankara/Turkey is predicted to rise to 8,043,717 people in 2040. Additionally, the number of residences is predicted to be 1,608,743 and wall area will be 160,874,330 m2. The total annual carbon dioxide amount for natural gas, coal and fuel oil is estimated to reach 916,179,309 kg/year, 1,304,690,816 kg/year, and 1,818,523,426 kg/year with 44% increase from 2018 to 2040, respectively. In 2018, the city-based heading period carbon footprints (CBHPCF) are 113.9, 162.2 and 226 kg/person-year for natural gas, coal and fuel oil, respectively. It is calculated that the CBHPCF will respectively be 163.56, 232.92 and 324.54 kg/person-year for the three fuels in 2040. The city-based heating period sulfur dioxide amount is estimated to be 0.460 kg/year for coal and 1,751 kg/person for fuel oil in 2040. Thus, the study can provide a clear picture for policy makers concerned about the future of the world.